Here's How You Beat Your Colleagues in a Football World Cup Betting Game
The stock market is a corrupt sport. Since they already know who will become World Cup champions, and as if this fall in tensions was not enough, the financial markets are also telling us that the German team will not win the title.
If the players in the markets get their way, Brazil will win, pro-bettor and author site estimated the probability of Selesao winning at least 48.5%. Löw-Elf, on the other hand, only has outside chances with 11.4% and should only qualify for the semi-finals.
Even the probability of the title in Argentina is estimated higher - 14.1 percent. Goldman Sachs is not alone in its analysis. Danske Bank and UniCredit also predict that Brazil will beat Argentina in the final next month.
Accurate forecasts thanks to big data
Such accurate predictions have been made possible by the information revolution. As the assessment of large volumes of complex economic and statistical information has become technically feasible, even non-specialists can have their say when football Germany is in a state of emergency in the next four weeks.
Because for the first time in the history of the World Championships, data machines and betting exchanges predict concrete outcomes of games from the preliminary round to the final. Everyone who is now participating in betting games with colleagues or friends is strongly advised not only to follow their instincts, but also to consult with prediction exchanges. Thus, thanks to Big Data, it is possible to personally achieve at least the ultimate victory if Germany does not win the title. What sports betting will make you rich read on this web page.
The markets have three forecast models that give more or less the same result. On the one hand, there are big data approaches of big banks like Goldman Sachs, the legendary investment bank, one of the smartest houses on Wall Street, that can still make money in any situation.
Goldman Sachs with a statistical model
Goldman has created a sophisticated statistical model for his World Cup prediction. All international matches since 1960 have been valued in the same way that stockbrokers infer future prices from the past.
The World Cup games were given a lot of importance to take into account the influence of good tournament teams that play at full strength in major championships. Home field advantage and Continental advantage also flowed into the pattern. After all, the hosts have won six times in 19 tournaments since 1930, and the continent also increased the likelihood of victory.
From the set of data, Goldman calculated the probability of the outcome of the respective games from the preliminary round through the knockout games to the final, and thus determined the winner - Brazil. “It's no surprise that one of the best teams in the world is the favorite for the title in front of their fans. But we are amazed at how strong the role of the Brazil favorites is in our model,” says one of the study’s two authors, Dominic Wilson. The probability is almost twice as high as that of the bookmakers.
In terms of bookies, Brazil is ahead
But even with the bookmakers, the second forecast model, Brazil is trading as a contender for the title. They work even more on the principle of stock exchanges, where the "fair" price is formed by supply and demand. Anyone who thinks he can estimate the chances of winning the World Cup better than others buys on the betting exchange an appropriate share of the country that he considers underestimated. A large number of such transactions gives a forecast surprisingly close to the real outcome of the World Cup.
The reason for the accuracy of forecasts is the efficient market theory, for which economist Eugene Fama won the Nobel Prize last year. This means that all information is always contained in market prices, which makes the informativeness so unique. Therefore, they also talk about swarm intelligence.